Santiago Wanderers 1–2 Union La Calera

Santiago Wanderers

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Union La Calera

A. Jara 24'

J. Valdivia 75' (pen)

G. Castellani 6' (pen)

4/11/2021

Primera División · Round 3Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Santiago Wanderers32%

×Draw27%

Union La Calera41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santiago WanderersExpected goals in this matchUnion La Calera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.37

Santiago Wanderers

1.17

Union La Calera

1.37

Union La Calera creates 17% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 39 away

1.00

creates per match

0.74

2.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Santiago Wanderers

1.00

Union La Calera

0.74

allows per match

Santiago Wanderers

2.00

Union La Calera

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santiago Wanderers+0.00on par

Union La Calera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago Wanderers ↓

Union La Calera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Santiago Wanderers or draw

59%

Santiago Wanderers or Union La Calera

73%

Draw or Union La Calera

68%

Winning margin

Santiago Wanderers wins by 2+

13%

Union La Calera wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Santiago Wanderers 1+ goals

69%

Santiago Wanderers 2+ goals

33%

Santiago Wanderers 3+ goals

11%

Union La Calera 1+ goals

75%

Union La Calera 2+ goals

40%

Union La Calera 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Santiago Wanderers (draw refunded)

44%

Union La Calera (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago Wanderers at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Union La Calera away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.33 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago Wanderers attack 1.00 + Union La Calera defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Union La Calera attack 0.74 + Santiago Wanderers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Santiago Wanderers scores more

32%

level

27%

Union La Calera scores more

41%

Union La Calera at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Union La Calera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

F. Alarcón

Santiago Wanderers · D

7.3

Match Events

-5'

Christian Fuentes

4'

Esteban Cristobal Valencia

4'

Esteban Cristobal ValenciaGoal cancelled

6'

G. CastellaniPenalty

24'

A. Jara↳ W. Gama

32'

Gonzalo Castellani

38'

Nicolás OrellanaGoal cancelled

46'

M. Cabrera← W. Gama

52'

Nicolás Orellana

60'

J. Valdivia← J. Vargas

60'

Y. Oyanedel← N. Orellana

69'

A. Vilches← O. Rivero

70'

Víctor Retamal

73'

B. Bustamante← V. Retamal

73'

M. Medel← A. Valencia

75'

J. ValdiviaPenalty

76'

Juan Soto

88'

Matías MarínGoal cancelled

90'

P. Guajardo← A. Jara

90+3'

V. González← S. Ramírez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantiagoUnion

Overview

58%Possession42%

15Total Shots9

5Corners4

15Fouls17

Shots

15Total Shots9

3On Target2

6Off Target6

6Blocked1

9Inside Box9

6Outside Box0

Passing

58%Possession42%

403Total Passes287

320Accurate Passes208

79%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls17

3Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1