Santiago Wanderers vs Union La Calera — Primera División 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Santiago Wanderers34%
Union La Calera40%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Union La Calera creates 11% more chances
Season form · 3 home / 26 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Santiago Wanderers ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Santiago Wanderers at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches
Union La Calera away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Santiago Wanderers attack 1.00 + Union La Calera defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25
Union La Calera attack 0.77 + Santiago Wanderers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.39
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Union La Calera at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Union La Calera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Coquimbo Unido
U. Catolica
Colo Colo
Universidad de Chile
O'Higgins
Huachipato
Palestino
Deportes Limache
Nublense
A. Italiano
Cobresal
Everton de Vina
D. La SerenaUnion La Calera
Universidad de Concepcion
Deportes Iquique
Concepción
Union EspanolaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Santiago Wanderers host Union La Calera on Thursday, 15 October 2020 at 16:30. The match is part of the Primera División 2025/2026 season.
Santiago Wanderers 0 – 3 Union La Calera
Union La Calera beat Santiago Wanderers 3-0 in Primera División on October 15, 2020.
Goals: N. Stefanelli (62'), A. Vilches (65', 82').
Union La Calera controlled possession (53%) and registered 14 shots to 10.
The match was played at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander in Valparaíso.