Santiago Wanderers 2–2 Santiago Morning

Santiago Wanderers

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Santiago Morning

C. Valenzuela 82'

M. Cañete 32' (pen)

F. Manríquez 47'

K. Campillay 17'

10/3/2024

Primera B · Round 26Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Santiago Wanderers47%

×Draw26%

Santiago Morning27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santiago WanderersExpected goals in this matchSantiago Morning

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.07

Santiago Wanderers

1.51

Santiago Morning

1.07

Santiago Wanderers creates 41% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 107 away

1.64

creates per match

1.07

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Santiago Wanderers

1.64

Santiago Morning

1.07

allows per match

Santiago Wanderers

1.07

Santiago Morning

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santiago Wanderers+0.00on par

Santiago Morning+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago Wanderers ↓

Santiago Morning →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Santiago Wanderers or draw

73%

Santiago Wanderers or Santiago Morning

74%

Draw or Santiago Morning

53%

Winning margin

Santiago Wanderers wins by 2+

24%

Santiago Morning wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Santiago Wanderers 1+ goals

78%

Santiago Wanderers 2+ goals

44%

Santiago Wanderers 3+ goals

19%

Santiago Morning 1+ goals

66%

Santiago Morning 2+ goals

29%

Santiago Morning 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Santiago Wanderers (draw refunded)

64%

Santiago Morning (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago Wanderers at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 88 matches

Santiago Morning away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.38 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago Wanderers attack 1.64 + Santiago Morning defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.51

Santiago Morning attack 1.07 + Santiago Wanderers defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Santiago Wanderers scores more

47%

level

26%

Santiago Morning scores more

27%

Santiago Wanderers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Santiago Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

K. Campillay

32'

M. CañetePenalty

45+2'

C. Muga

46'

D. Opazo← C. Ponce

46'

E. Paredes← P. Castro

46'

M. Coronado← M. Arancibia

47'

F. Manríquez

50'

D. Ortiz← V. Espinoza

55'

J. Silva← M. Cañete

61'

J. Pereyra

65'

B. Garrido← J. Pereyra

65'

C. Valenzuela← J. Duma

78'

G. Escobar← K. Campillay

82'

C. Valenzuela

90+3'

M. Coronado

90+4'

J. Leon

90+2'

E. Luco← C. Valenzuela

90+6'

Santiago

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. García

46'▲D. Opazo←▼C. Ponce

50'▲D. Ortiz←▼V. Espinoza

55'▲J. Silva←▼M. Cañete

65'▲B. Garrido←▼J. Pereyra

65'▲C. Valenzuela←▼J. Duma

90+2'▲E. Luco←▼C. Valenzuela

Santiago Wanderers substitutes

OpazoOrtizSilvaGarridoValenzuelaLucoGonzález

Manager: L. Marcoleta

46'▲E. Paredes←▼P. Castro

46'▲M. Coronado←▼M. Arancibia

78'▲G. Escobar←▼K. Campillay

90+6'▲C. Díaz←▼M. Coronado

Santiago Morning substitutes

ParedesCoronadoEscobarDíazCerónAlvaradoOlguín

Match Recap: Santiago Wanderers vs Santiago Morning

Santiago Wanderers and Santiago Morning drew 2-2 in Primera B on October 3, 2024.

Goals: K. Campillay (17'), M. Cañete (32' pen), F. Manríquez (47'), C. Valenzuela (82').

The match was played at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander in Valparaíso.

Santiago Wanderers vs Santiago Morning — Primera B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Santiago Wanderers vs Santiago Morning