Santiago Morning 1–1 Santiago Wanderers

Santiago Morning

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Santiago Wanderers

R. Paredes 90+5'

C. Muñoz 70'

5/4/2024

Primera B · Round 11Estadio Municipal de La Pintana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Santiago Morning39%

×Draw28%

Santiago Wanderers33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santiago MorningExpected goals in this matchSantiago Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.13

Santiago Morning

1.25

Santiago Wanderers

1.13

Santiago Morning creates 11% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 88 away

1.19

creates per match

1.17

1.09

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Santiago Morning

1.19

Santiago Wanderers

1.17

allows per match

Santiago Morning

1.09

Santiago Wanderers

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santiago Morning+0.00on par

Santiago Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago Morning ↓

Santiago Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Santiago Morning or draw

67%

Santiago Morning or Santiago Wanderers

72%

Draw or Santiago Wanderers

61%

Winning margin

Santiago Morning wins by 2+

17%

Santiago Wanderers wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Santiago Morning 1+ goals

71%

Santiago Morning 2+ goals

36%

Santiago Morning 3+ goals

13%

Santiago Wanderers 1+ goals

68%

Santiago Wanderers 2+ goals

31%

Santiago Wanderers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Santiago Morning (draw refunded)

54%

Santiago Wanderers (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago Morning at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.09 · 106 matches

Santiago Wanderers away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.30 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago Morning attack 1.19 + Santiago Wanderers defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Santiago Wanderers attack 1.17 + Santiago Morning defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Santiago Morning scores more

39%

level

28%

Santiago Wanderers scores more

33%

Santiago Morning at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Santiago Morning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

M. Canete

38'

J. Rodriguez

51'

C. Muga

57'

M. Coronado← S. Salazar

62'

C. Muñoz← A. Vilches

65'

J. Carreño← J. Barrientos

70'

C. Muñoz

72'

J. Santander

78'

C. Valenzuela← M. Cañete

85'

R. Parra← J. Silva

85'

E. Ormeño← K. Vásquez

90+1'

90+3'

90+5'

Santiago

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: L. Marcoleta

57'▲M. Coronado←▼S. Salazar

65'▲J. Carreño←▼J. Barrientos

Santiago Morning substitutes

CoronadoCarreñoCarreñoArancibiaGaticaOlguínLerman

Manager: F. Palladino

62'▲C. Muñoz←▼A. Vilches

78'▲C. Valenzuela←▼M. Cañete

85'▲R. Parra←▼J. Silva

85'▲E. Ormeño←▼K. Vásquez

Santiago Wanderers substitutes

MuñozValenzuelaParraOrmeñoAriasOrtizHurtado

Match Recap: Santiago Morning vs Santiago Wanderers

Santiago Morning and Santiago Wanderers drew 1-1 in Primera B on May 4, 2024.

Goals: C. Muñoz (70'), R. Paredes (90+5').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana in Santiago de Chile.

Santiago Morning vs Santiago Wanderers — Primera B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Santiago Morning vs Santiago Wanderers