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Santiago Wanderers vs D. La Serena — Copa Chile 2019

Santiago Wanderers
Santiago Wanderers
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
D. La Serena
D. La Serenaadvanced
7/16/2025Copa ChileCopa Chile · Quarter-finalsEstadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Santiago Wanderers37%
×Draw24%
D. La Serena39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santiago Wanderers
1.53
D. La Serena
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

creates per match

Santiago Wanderers
1.27
D. La Serena
1.57

allows per match

Santiago Wanderers
1.55
D. La Serena
1.79

finishing

Santiago Wanderers+0.00on par
D. La Serena+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago Wanderers ↓

D. La Serena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Santiago Wanderers or draw
61%
Santiago Wanderers or D. La Serena
76%
Draw or D. La Serena
63%

Winning margin

Santiago Wanderers wins by 2+
18%
D. La Serena wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Santiago Wanderers 1+ goals
78%
Santiago Wanderers 2+ goals
45%
Santiago Wanderers 3+ goals
20%
D. La Serena 1+ goals
79%
D. La Serena 2+ goals
46%
D. La Serena 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Santiago Wanderers (draw refunded)
49%
D. La Serena (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago Wanderers at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

D. La Serena away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago Wanderers attack 1.27 + D. La Serena defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.53

D. La Serena attack 1.57 + Santiago Wanderers defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Santiago Wanderers scores more
37%
level
24%
D. La Serena scores more
39%

D. La Serena at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "D. La Serena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santiago Wanderers vs D. La Serena

D. La Serena beat Santiago Wanderers 5-1 in Copa Chile on July 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña in Quillota.