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D. La Serena vs Santiago Wanderers — Copa Chile 2019

D. La Serena
D. La Serenaadvanced
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Santiago Wanderers
Santiago Wanderers
7/9/2025Copa ChileCopa Chile · Quarter-finalsEstadio La Portada de La Serena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

D. La Serena43%
×Draw22%
Santiago Wanderers35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. La Serena
1.94
Santiago Wanderers
1.75

D. La Serena creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

creates per match

D. La Serena
2.00
Santiago Wanderers
1.89

allows per match

D. La Serena
1.62
Santiago Wanderers
1.89

finishing

D. La Serena+0.00on par
Santiago Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. La Serena ↓

Santiago Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

D. La Serena or draw
65%
D. La Serena or Santiago Wanderers
78%
Draw or Santiago Wanderers
57%

Winning margin

D. La Serena wins by 2+
23%
Santiago Wanderers wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

D. La Serena 1+ goals
86%
D. La Serena 2+ goals
58%
D. La Serena 3+ goals
30%
Santiago Wanderers 1+ goals
83%
Santiago Wanderers 2+ goals
52%
Santiago Wanderers 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

D. La Serena (draw refunded)
55%
Santiago Wanderers (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. La Serena at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Santiago Wanderers away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. La Serena attack 2.00 + Santiago Wanderers defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.94

Santiago Wanderers attack 1.89 + D. La Serena defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

D. La Serena scores more
43%
level
22%
Santiago Wanderers scores more
35%

D. La Serena at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "D. La Serena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: D. La Serena vs Santiago Wanderers

D. La Serena beat Santiago Wanderers 4-2 in Copa Chile on July 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio La Portada de La Serena in La Serena.