Santiago Wanderers 2–2 Concepción: Result & Stats

Santiago Wanderers

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Concepción

J. Pereyra 45'

J. Silva 27'

A. Gillard 81'

J. Ovalle 34'

10/11/2025

Primera B · Round 27Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Santiago Wanderers46%

×Draw25%

Concepción29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santiago WanderersExpected goals in this matchConcepción

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.23

Santiago Wanderers

1.60

Concepción

1.23

Santiago Wanderers creates 30% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 18 away

1.64

creates per match

1.39

1.07

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Santiago Wanderers

1.64

Concepción

1.39

allows per match

Santiago Wanderers

1.07

Concepción

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santiago Wanderers+0.00on par

Concepción+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago Wanderers ↓

Concepción →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Santiago Wanderers or draw

71%

Santiago Wanderers or Concepción

75%

Draw or Concepción

54%

Winning margin

Santiago Wanderers wins by 2+

24%

Concepción wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Santiago Wanderers 1+ goals

80%

Santiago Wanderers 2+ goals

47%

Santiago Wanderers 3+ goals

22%

Concepción 1+ goals

71%

Concepción 2+ goals

35%

Concepción 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Santiago Wanderers (draw refunded)

61%

Concepción (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago Wanderers at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 88 matches

Concepción away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago Wanderers attack 1.64 + Concepción defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.60

Concepción attack 1.39 + Santiago Wanderers defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Santiago Wanderers scores more

46%

level

25%

Concepción scores more

29%

Santiago Wanderers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Santiago Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

27'

34'

45+9'

45+9'

45'

46'

Zambrano Diego← J. Espinola

66'

M. Sandoval

67'

C. A. Astroza Zambrano← M. Cuadra

70'

S. Felipe

72'

V. Gonzalez← E. Espinoza

72'

A. Gillard← N. Sepulveda

79'

J. Luna

81'

A. Gillard

83'

M. Velasquez← J. Pereyra

83'

L. Avendano← J. Luna

83'

D. Opazo← J. Silva

83'

C. Escobar← A. Caceres

Santiago

Concepción

25

Araya

4

▼

Caceres

31

Kimura

3

Carrasco

24

▼

Espinola

26

Morales

27

▼

Sepulveda

11

Valdivia

16

Sandoval

19

⚽

32

1

17

3

18

6

20

⚽

▼

Silva

5

Navarro

8

⚽

▼

Pereyra

30

▼

Espinoza

10

▼

Luna

27

▼

Cuadra

Manager: Domingo Sorace Figueroa

67'▲C. A. Astroza Zambrano←▼M. Cuadra

72'▲V. Gonzalez←▼E. Espinoza

83'▲M. Velasquez←▼J. Pereyra

83'▲L. Avendano←▼J. Luna

83'▲D. Opazo←▼J. Silva

Santiago Wanderers substitutes

12Martinez14Ponce23Gonzalez26Zambrano33Velasquez39Avendano7Opazo

Manager: Manuel Antonio Suárez Jiménez

46'▲Zambrano Diego←▼J. Espinola

72'▲A. Gillard←▼N. Sepulveda

83'▲C. Escobar←▼A. Caceres

Concepción substitutes

15Gomez5Silva8Manzo20Diego30Fuentes7Gillard9Escobar

Match Recap: Santiago Wanderers vs Concepción

Santiago Wanderers and Concepción drew 2-2 in Primera B on October 11, 2025.

Goals: J. Silva (27'), J. Ovalle (34'), J. Pereyra (45'), A. Gillard (81').

The match was played at Estadio Elías Figueroa Brander in Valparaíso.

Santiago Wanderers vs Concepción — Primera B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Santiago Wanderers vs Concepción