Concepción 0–0 Santiago Wanderers: Result & Stats

Concepción

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Santiago Wanderers

6/1/2025

Primera B · Round 12Estadio Ester Roa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Concepción45%

×Draw27%

Santiago Wanderers28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ConcepciónExpected goals in this matchSantiago Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.03

Concepción

1.37

Santiago Wanderers

1.03

Concepción creates 33% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 88 away

1.44

creates per match

1.17

0.89

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Concepción

1.44

Santiago Wanderers

1.17

allows per match

Concepción

0.89

Santiago Wanderers

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concepción+0.00on par

Santiago Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concepción ↓

Santiago Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Concepción or draw

72%

Concepción or Santiago Wanderers

73%

Draw or Santiago Wanderers

55%

Winning margin

Concepción wins by 2+

21%

Santiago Wanderers wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Concepción 1+ goals

75%

Concepción 2+ goals

40%

Concepción 3+ goals

16%

Santiago Wanderers 1+ goals

64%

Santiago Wanderers 2+ goals

28%

Santiago Wanderers 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Concepción (draw refunded)

61%

Santiago Wanderers (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concepción at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Santiago Wanderers away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.30 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concepción attack 1.44 + Santiago Wanderers defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.37

Santiago Wanderers attack 1.17 + Concepción defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Concepción scores more

45%

level

27%

Santiago Wanderers scores more

28%

Concepción at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Concepción will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'

U. Ojeda

48'

S. Silva

55'

60'

F. Nunez← N. L’Huillier

69'

A. Gillard← U. Ojeda

71'

L. Margas← V. Espinoza

74'

E. Miranda

78'

J. Valladares← E. Espinoza

81'

F. Manzo← N. Astete

81'

J. Espinola← F. I. Saavedra Saavedra

90+4'

J. Pereyra

90+5'

S. Martinez

Concepción

Santiago

1

Miranda

33

Velasquez

4

▼

10

5

6

8

29

30

▼

17

21

25

5

20

22

▼

L’Huillie

14

Martinez

18

▼

Saavedra

11

Valdivia

6

▼

Astete

23

▼

Ojeda

32

Larrivey

4

Caceres

Manager: Manuel Antonio Suárez Jiménez

60'▲F. Nunez←▼N. L’Huillier

69'▲A. Gillard←▼U. Ojeda

81'▲F. Manzo←▼N. Astete

81'▲J. Espinola←▼F. I. Saavedra Saavedra

Concepción substitutes

31Saez17Fernandez8Manzo10Nunez24Espinola7Gillard9Escobar

Manager: Domingo Sorace Figueroa

71'▲L. Margas←▼V. Espinoza

78'▲J. Valladares←▼E. Espinoza

Santiago Wanderers substitutes

3Margas13Cubillos16Parra11Valladares7Opazo26Zambrano12Martinez

Primera B: Concepción 0–0 Santiago Wanderers

Concepción and Santiago Wanderers drew 0-0 in Primera B on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Ester Roa in Concepción.

Concepción vs Santiago Wanderers — Primera B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera B: Concepción 0–0 Santiago Wanderers