Santiago Morning 0–1 San Marcos de Arica

Santiago Morning

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

San Marcos de Arica

7/26/2024

Primera B · Round 18Estadio Municipal de La Pintana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Santiago Morning41%

×Draw28%

San Marcos de Arica31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santiago MorningExpected goals in this matchSan Marcos de Arica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.10

Santiago Morning

1.30

San Marcos de Arica

1.10

Santiago Morning creates 18% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 91 away

1.19

creates per match

1.11

1.10

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Santiago Morning

1.19

San Marcos de Arica

1.11

allows per match

Santiago Morning

1.10

San Marcos de Arica

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santiago Morning+0.00on par

San Marcos de Arica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago Morning ↓

San Marcos de Arica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Santiago Morning or draw

69%

Santiago Morning or San Marcos de Arica

72%

Draw or San Marcos de Arica

59%

Winning margin

Santiago Morning wins by 2+

19%

San Marcos de Arica wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Santiago Morning 1+ goals

73%

Santiago Morning 2+ goals

37%

Santiago Morning 3+ goals

14%

San Marcos de Arica 1+ goals

67%

San Marcos de Arica 2+ goals

30%

San Marcos de Arica 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Santiago Morning (draw refunded)

57%

San Marcos de Arica (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago Morning at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.10 · 112 matches

San Marcos de Arica away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.41 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago Morning attack 1.19 + San Marcos de Arica defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.30

San Marcos de Arica attack 1.11 + Santiago Morning defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Santiago Morning scores more

41%

level

28%

San Marcos de Arica scores more

31%

Santiago Morning at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Santiago Morning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff