San Marcos de Arica 2–1 Santiago Morning

San Marcos de Arica

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Santiago Morning

8/23/2025

Primera B · Round 22Estadio Carlos Dittborn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

San Marcos de Arica44%

×Draw27%

Santiago Morning29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Marcos de AricaExpected goals in this matchSantiago Morning

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.07

San Marcos de Arica

1.37

Santiago Morning

1.07

San Marcos de Arica creates 28% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 113 away

1.34

creates per match

1.06

1.08

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

San Marcos de Arica

1.34

Santiago Morning

1.06

allows per match

San Marcos de Arica

1.08

Santiago Morning

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Marcos de Arica+0.00on par

Santiago Morning+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Marcos de Arica ↓

Santiago Morning →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

San Marcos de Arica or draw

71%

San Marcos de Arica or Santiago Morning

73%

Draw or Santiago Morning

56%

Winning margin

San Marcos de Arica wins by 2+

21%

Santiago Morning wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

San Marcos de Arica 1+ goals

75%

San Marcos de Arica 2+ goals

40%

San Marcos de Arica 3+ goals

16%

Santiago Morning 1+ goals

66%

Santiago Morning 2+ goals

29%

Santiago Morning 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

San Marcos de Arica (draw refunded)

60%

Santiago Morning (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Marcos de Arica at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.08 · 91 matches

Santiago Morning away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.40 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Marcos de Arica attack 1.34 + Santiago Morning defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.37

Santiago Morning attack 1.06 + San Marcos de Arica defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

San Marcos de Arica scores more

44%

level

27%

Santiago Morning scores more

29%

San Marcos de Arica at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "San Marcos de Arica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff