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Santiago Morning vs San Luis — Primera B 2026

Santiago Morning
Santiago Morning
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Luis
San Luis
3/1/2024Primera BPrimera B · Round 2Estadio Municipal de La Pintana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Santiago Morning43%
×Draw27%
San Luis30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santiago Morning
1.34
San Luis
1.06

Santiago Morning creates 26% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 111 away

creates per match

Santiago Morning
1.19
San Luis
1.01

allows per match

Santiago Morning
1.10
San Luis
1.50

finishing

Santiago Morning+0.00on par
San Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago Morning ↓

San Luis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Santiago Morning or draw
70%
Santiago Morning or San Luis
73%
Draw or San Luis
57%

Winning margin

Santiago Morning wins by 2+
20%
San Luis wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Santiago Morning 1+ goals
74%
Santiago Morning 2+ goals
39%
Santiago Morning 3+ goals
15%
San Luis 1+ goals
65%
San Luis 2+ goals
29%
San Luis 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Santiago Morning (draw refunded)
59%
San Luis (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago Morning at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.10 · 112 matches

San Luis away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.50 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago Morning attack 1.19 + San Luis defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

San Luis attack 1.01 + Santiago Morning defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Santiago Morning scores more
43%
level
27%
San Luis scores more
30%

Santiago Morning at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Santiago Morning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santiago Morning vs San Luis

Santiago Morning beat San Luis 4-0 in Primera B on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana in Santiago de Chile.