San Luis vs Santiago Morning — Primera B 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 112+ matches
San Luis40%
Santiago Morning32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
San Luis creates 17% more chances
Season form · 112 home / 113 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under58
- Over42
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
San Luis ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
San Luis at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.13 · 112 matches
Santiago Morning away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.40 · 113 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
San Luis attack 1.15 + Santiago Morning defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27
Santiago Morning attack 1.06 + San Luis defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
San Luis at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "San Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Cobreloa
San Marcos de Arica
Antofagasta
Santiago Wanderers
Deportes Copiapo
MagallanesSan Luis
Deportes Temuco
Concepción
Recoleta
Union San Felipe
Curico Unido
Universidad de Concepcion
Deportes Santa Cruz
Rangers de Talca
D. Puerto Montt
Union EspanolaSantiago Morning
Deportes IquiqueIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
San Luis host Santiago Morning on Sunday, 21 July 2024 at 21:30. The match is part of the Primera B 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: San Luis vs Santiago Morning
Santiago Morning beat San Luis 3-1 in Primera B on July 21, 2024.
The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña in Quillota.