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Santiago Morning vs Magallanes — Copa Chile 2019

Santiago Morning
Santiago Morning
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Magallanes
Magallanes
5/9/2025Copa ChileCopa Chile · Group Stage - 6Estadio Municipal de La Pintana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Santiago Morning23%
×Draw24%
Magallanes53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santiago Morning
1.02
Magallanes
1.69

Magallanes creates 66% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 25 away

creates per match

Santiago Morning
0.71
Magallanes
1.96

allows per match

Santiago Morning
1.43
Magallanes
1.32

finishing

Santiago Morning+0.00on par
Magallanes+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago Morning ↓

Magallanes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Santiago Morning or draw
47%
Santiago Morning or Magallanes
76%
Draw or Magallanes
77%

Winning margin

Santiago Morning wins by 2+
8%
Magallanes wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Santiago Morning 1+ goals
64%
Santiago Morning 2+ goals
27%
Santiago Morning 3+ goals
8%
Magallanes 1+ goals
82%
Magallanes 2+ goals
50%
Magallanes 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Santiago Morning (draw refunded)
30%
Magallanes (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago Morning at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Magallanes away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago Morning attack 0.71 + Magallanes defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.02

Magallanes attack 1.96 + Santiago Morning defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Santiago Morning scores more
23%
level
24%
Magallanes scores more
53%

Magallanes at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Magallanes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Chile: Santiago Morning 1–2 Magallanes

Magallanes beat Santiago Morning 2-1 in Copa Chile on May 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana in Santiago de Chile.