Santiago Morning 0–2 Magallanes: Result & Stats

Santiago Morning

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Magallanes

J. Larrivey 74'

R. González 13'

8/4/2024

Primera B · Round 20Estadio Municipal de La Pintana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Santiago Morning38%

×Draw28%

Magallanes34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santiago MorningExpected goals in this matchMagallanes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.11

Santiago Morning

1.19

Magallanes

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 104 away

1.19

creates per match

1.13

1.10

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Santiago Morning

1.19

Magallanes

1.13

allows per match

Santiago Morning

1.10

Magallanes

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santiago Morning+0.00on par

Magallanes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago Morning ↓

Magallanes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Santiago Morning or draw

66%

Santiago Morning or Magallanes

72%

Draw or Magallanes

62%

Winning margin

Santiago Morning wins by 2+

16%

Magallanes wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Santiago Morning 1+ goals

70%

Santiago Morning 2+ goals

33%

Santiago Morning 3+ goals

12%

Magallanes 1+ goals

67%

Magallanes 2+ goals

30%

Magallanes 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Santiago Morning (draw refunded)

53%

Magallanes (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago Morning at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.10 · 112 matches

Magallanes away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago Morning attack 1.19 + Magallanes defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Magallanes attack 1.13 + Santiago Morning defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Santiago Morning scores more

38%

level

28%

Magallanes scores more

34%

Santiago Morning at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Santiago Morning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

R. González

22'

D. Ceron

38'

C. Díaz← M. Arancibia

38'

F. Alvarado← J. Carreño

38'

M. Coronado← S. Salazar

40+4'

O. Ortega

46'

Á. Cayetano← A. Walters

53'

A. Cayetano

54'

F. Alvarado

63'

A. Rodríguez← T. Aránguiz

63'

C. Jorquera← T. Jones

74'

J. Larrivey

79'

E. Neira← M. Vicuña

85'

N. Rivera← J. Quiroz

Santiago

Magallanes

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: L. Marcoleta

38'▲C. Díaz←▼M. Arancibia

38'▲F. Alvarado←▼J. Carreño

38'▲M. Coronado←▼S. Salazar

Santiago Morning substitutes

DíazAlvaradoCoronadoBarrientosGaticaOlguínLerman

Manager: R. Fuentes

46'▲Á. Cayetano←▼A. Walters

63'▲A. Rodríguez←▼T. Aránguiz

63'▲C. Jorquera←▼T. Jones

79'▲E. Neira←▼M. Vicuña

85'▲N. Rivera←▼J. Quiroz

Magallanes substitutes

CayetanoRodríguezJorqueraNeiraRiveraBarríaDeschamps

Primera B: Santiago Morning 0–2 Magallanes

Magallanes beat Santiago Morning 2-0 in Primera B on August 4, 2024.

Goals: R. González (13'), J. Larrivey (74').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana in Santiago de Chile.

Santiago Morning vs Magallanes — Primera B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera B: Santiago Morning 0–2 Magallanes