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Santiago Morning vs D. La Serena — Primera B 2026

Santiago Morning
Santiago Morning
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
D. La Serena
D. La Serena
3/15/2024Primera BPrimera B · Round 4Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Santiago Morning36%
×Draw28%
D. La Serena35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santiago Morning
1.18
D. La Serena
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 52 away

creates per match

Santiago Morning
1.19
D. La Serena
1.21

allows per match

Santiago Morning
1.10
D. La Serena
1.17

finishing

Santiago Morning+0.00on par
D. La Serena+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago Morning ↓

D. La Serena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Santiago Morning or draw
65%
Santiago Morning or D. La Serena
72%
Draw or D. La Serena
64%

Winning margin

Santiago Morning wins by 2+
15%
D. La Serena wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Santiago Morning 1+ goals
69%
Santiago Morning 2+ goals
33%
Santiago Morning 3+ goals
12%
D. La Serena 1+ goals
69%
D. La Serena 2+ goals
32%
D. La Serena 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Santiago Morning (draw refunded)
51%
D. La Serena (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago Morning at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.10 · 112 matches

D. La Serena away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.17 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago Morning attack 1.19 + D. La Serena defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.18

D. La Serena attack 1.21 + Santiago Morning defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Santiago Morning scores more
36%
level
28%
D. La Serena scores more
35%

Santiago Morning at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Santiago Morning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Santiago Morning 2–4 D. La Serena

D. La Serena beat Santiago Morning 4-2 in Primera B on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK in Santiago de Chile.