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D. La Serena vs Santiago Morning — Primera B 2026

D. La Serena
D. La Serena
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Santiago Morning
Santiago Morning
7/27/2019Primera BPrimera B · Round 16Estadio La Portada de La Serena (La Serena)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

D. La Serena49%
×Draw27%
Santiago Morning24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. La Serena
1.41
Santiago Morning
0.90

D. La Serena creates 57% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 113 away

creates per match

D. La Serena
1.42
Santiago Morning
1.06

allows per match

D. La Serena
0.73
Santiago Morning
1.40

finishing

D. La Serena+0.00on par
Santiago Morning+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. La Serena ↓

Santiago Morning →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

D. La Serena or draw
76%
D. La Serena or Santiago Morning
73%
Draw or Santiago Morning
51%

Winning margin

D. La Serena wins by 2+
24%
Santiago Morning wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

D. La Serena 1+ goals
76%
D. La Serena 2+ goals
41%
D. La Serena 3+ goals
17%
Santiago Morning 1+ goals
59%
Santiago Morning 2+ goals
23%
Santiago Morning 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

D. La Serena (draw refunded)
67%
Santiago Morning (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. La Serena at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.73 · 52 matches

Santiago Morning away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.40 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. La Serena attack 1.42 + Santiago Morning defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.41

Santiago Morning attack 1.06 + D. La Serena defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

D. La Serena scores more
49%
level
27%
Santiago Morning scores more
24%

D. La Serena at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "D. La Serena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

D. La Serena 2 – 0 Santiago Morning

D. La Serena beat Santiago Morning 2-0 in Primera B on July 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio La Portada de La Serena (La Serena).