Santiago Morning 1–2 Antofagasta: Result & Stats

Santiago Morning

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Antofagasta

7/23/2023

Primera B · Round 19Estadio Lautaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Santiago Morning42%

×Draw27%

Antofagasta31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santiago MorningExpected goals in this matchAntofagasta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.10

Santiago Morning

1.33

Antofagasta

1.10

Santiago Morning creates 21% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 57 away

1.19

creates per match

1.12

1.09

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Santiago Morning

1.19

Antofagasta

1.12

allows per match

Santiago Morning

1.09

Antofagasta

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santiago Morning+0.00on par

Antofagasta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago Morning ↓

Antofagasta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Santiago Morning or draw

69%

Santiago Morning or Antofagasta

73%

Draw or Antofagasta

58%

Winning margin

Santiago Morning wins by 2+

19%

Antofagasta wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Santiago Morning 1+ goals

74%

Santiago Morning 2+ goals

38%

Santiago Morning 3+ goals

15%

Antofagasta 1+ goals

67%

Antofagasta 2+ goals

30%

Antofagasta 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Santiago Morning (draw refunded)

58%

Antofagasta (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago Morning at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.09 · 106 matches

Antofagasta away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.47 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago Morning attack 1.19 + Antofagasta defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

Antofagasta attack 1.12 + Santiago Morning defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Santiago Morning scores more

42%

level

27%

Antofagasta scores more

31%

Santiago Morning at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Santiago Morning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff