Antofagasta 4–0 Santiago Morning: Result & Stats

Antofagasta

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Santiago Morning

T. Figueroa 72'

I. Jara 49'

B. Nieto 47'

C. Bravo 16'

9/7/2025

Primera B · Round 24Estadio Regional de Antofagasta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Antofagasta51%

×Draw25%

Santiago Morning24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AntofagastaExpected goals in this matchSantiago Morning

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.02

Antofagasta

1.59

Santiago Morning

1.02

Antofagasta creates 56% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 107 away

1.80

creates per match

1.07

0.98

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Antofagasta

1.80

Santiago Morning

1.07

allows per match

Antofagasta

0.98

Santiago Morning

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Antofagasta+0.00on par

Santiago Morning+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antofagasta ↓

Santiago Morning →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Antofagasta or draw

76%

Antofagasta or Santiago Morning

75%

Draw or Santiago Morning

49%

Winning margin

Antofagasta wins by 2+

26%

Santiago Morning wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Antofagasta 1+ goals

80%

Antofagasta 2+ goals

47%

Antofagasta 3+ goals

21%

Santiago Morning 1+ goals

64%

Santiago Morning 2+ goals

27%

Santiago Morning 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Antofagasta (draw refunded)

68%

Santiago Morning (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antofagasta at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.98 · 56 matches

Santiago Morning away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.38 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antofagasta attack 1.80 + Santiago Morning defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.59

Santiago Morning attack 1.07 + Antofagasta defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Antofagasta scores more

51%

level

25%

Santiago Morning scores more

24%

Antofagasta at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Antofagasta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

16'

20'

25'

25'

39'

44'

45+4'

45+4'

46'

B. Nieto← M. Maluenda

47'

B. Nieto

49'

I. Jara

61'

J. Monje← T. Asprea

61'

M. Coronado← D. Arias

61'

66'

70'

71'

72'

74'

75'

75'

79'

79'

S. Salazar← M. Iturra

85'

A. Souper← S. Hinojosa

Antofagasta

Santiago

12

14

2

16

23

20

4

▼

Iturra

6

▼

Asprea

22

▼

Arias

9

▼

Cid

10

Campillay

12

Perez

3

▼

16

2

33

26

▼

Hinojosa

15

Baez

30

⚽

▼

Jara

8

Paredes

32

⚽

Figueroa

7

⚽

Bravo

Manager: Hernán Álex Peña González

46'▲B. Nieto←▼M. Maluenda

71'▲A. Cuadra←▼I. Jara

85'▲A. Souper←▼S. Hinojosa

Antofagasta substitutes

1Cisternas17Nieto10Souper20Cuadra21Manzano23Fredes9Hurtado

Manager: C. Febre

61'▲J. Monje←▼T. Asprea

61'▲M. Coronado←▼D. Arias

61'▲M. Arancibia←▼W. Cid

79'▲S. Salazar←▼M. Iturra

Santiago Morning substitutes

1Arana25Estay28Alvarez8Salazar19Monje27Coronado7Arancibia

Match Recap: Antofagasta vs Santiago Morning

Antofagasta beat Santiago Morning 4-0 in Primera B on September 7, 2025.

Goals: C. Bravo (16'), B. Nieto (47'), I. Jara (49'), T. Figueroa (72').

The match was played at Estadio Regional de Antofagasta in Antofagasta.

Antofagasta vs Santiago Morning — Primera B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Antofagasta vs Santiago Morning