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Santiago City vs Provincial Osorno — Segunda División 2020

Santiago City
Santiago City
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Provincial Osorno
Provincial Osorno
6/7/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 12Estadio Municipal de Lo Barnechea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Santiago City39%
×Draw24%
Provincial Osorno37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santiago City
1.57
Provincial Osorno
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 43 away

creates per match

Santiago City
1.56
Provincial Osorno
1.26

allows per match

Santiago City
1.78
Provincial Osorno
1.58

finishing

Santiago City+0.00on par
Provincial Osorno+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago City ↓

Provincial Osorno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Santiago City or draw
63%
Santiago City or Provincial Osorno
76%
Draw or Provincial Osorno
61%

Winning margin

Santiago City wins by 2+
19%
Provincial Osorno wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Santiago City 1+ goals
79%
Santiago City 2+ goals
46%
Santiago City 3+ goals
21%
Provincial Osorno 1+ goals
78%
Provincial Osorno 2+ goals
45%
Provincial Osorno 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Santiago City (draw refunded)
51%
Provincial Osorno (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago City at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

Provincial Osorno away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago City attack 1.56 + Provincial Osorno defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.57

Provincial Osorno attack 1.26 + Santiago City defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Santiago City scores more
39%
level
24%
Provincial Osorno scores more
37%

Santiago City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Santiago City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Santiago City 1–3 Provincial Osorno

Provincial Osorno beat Santiago City 3-1 in Segunda División on June 7, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Lo Barnechea in Santiago de Chile.