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Provincial Osorno vs Santiago City — Segunda División 2020

Provincial Osorno
Provincial Osorno
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Santiago City
Santiago City
11/22/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Provincial Osorno57%
×Draw21%
Santiago City22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Provincial Osorno
2.07
Santiago City
1.23

Provincial Osorno creates 68% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 18 away

creates per match

Provincial Osorno
1.64
Santiago City
1.39

allows per match

Provincial Osorno
1.07
Santiago City
2.50

finishing

Provincial Osorno+0.00on par
Santiago City+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Provincial Osorno ↓

Santiago City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Provincial Osorno or draw
78%
Provincial Osorno or Santiago City
79%
Draw or Santiago City
43%

Winning margin

Provincial Osorno wins by 2+
34%
Santiago City wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Provincial Osorno 1+ goals
87%
Provincial Osorno 2+ goals
61%
Provincial Osorno 3+ goals
34%
Santiago City 1+ goals
71%
Santiago City 2+ goals
35%
Santiago City 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Provincial Osorno (draw refunded)
72%
Santiago City (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Provincial Osorno at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 44 matches

Santiago City away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Provincial Osorno attack 1.64 + Santiago City defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.07

Santiago City attack 1.39 + Provincial Osorno defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Provincial Osorno scores more
57%
level
21%
Santiago City scores more
22%

Provincial Osorno at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Provincial Osorno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Provincial Osorno vs Santiago City

Provincial Osorno and Santiago City drew 3-3 in Segunda División on November 22, 2025.