Santiago City 1–1 General Velásquez: Result & Stats

Santiago City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

General Velásquez

3/16/2025

Segunda División · Round 3Estadio Municipal de Lo Barnechea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Santiago City38%

×Draw25%

General Velásquez37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santiago CityExpected goals in this matchGeneral Velásquez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.42

Santiago City

1.44

General Velásquez

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 77 away

1.56

creates per match

1.06

1.78

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Santiago City

1.56

General Velásquez

1.06

allows per match

Santiago City

1.78

General Velásquez

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santiago City+0.00on par

General Velásquez+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago City ↓

General Velásquez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Santiago City or draw

63%

Santiago City or General Velásquez

75%

Draw or General Velásquez

62%

Winning margin

Santiago City wins by 2+

18%

General Velásquez wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Santiago City 1+ goals

76%

Santiago City 2+ goals

42%

Santiago City 3+ goals

18%

General Velásquez 1+ goals

76%

General Velásquez 2+ goals

41%

General Velásquez 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Santiago City (draw refunded)

51%

General Velásquez (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago City at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

General Velásquez away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago City attack 1.56 + General Velásquez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.44

General Velásquez attack 1.06 + Santiago City defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Santiago City scores more

38%

level

25%

General Velásquez scores more

37%

Santiago City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Santiago City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff