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General Velásquez vs Santiago City — Segunda División 2020

General Velásquez
General Velásquez
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Santiago City
Santiago City
8/3/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 16Estadio Municipal Augusto Rodríguez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

General Velásquez55%
×Draw22%
Santiago City23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Velásquez
1.96
Santiago City
1.21

General Velásquez creates 62% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 18 away

creates per match

General Velásquez
1.43
Santiago City
1.39

allows per match

General Velásquez
1.03
Santiago City
2.50

finishing

General Velásquez+0.00on par
Santiago City+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Velásquez ↓

Santiago City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

General Velásquez or draw
77%
General Velásquez or Santiago City
78%
Draw or Santiago City
45%

Winning margin

General Velásquez wins by 2+
32%
Santiago City wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

General Velásquez 1+ goals
86%
General Velásquez 2+ goals
58%
General Velásquez 3+ goals
31%
Santiago City 1+ goals
70%
Santiago City 2+ goals
34%
Santiago City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

General Velásquez (draw refunded)
70%
Santiago City (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Velásquez at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Santiago City away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Velásquez attack 1.43 + Santiago City defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.96

Santiago City attack 1.39 + General Velásquez defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

General Velásquez scores more
55%
level
22%
Santiago City scores more
23%

General Velásquez at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "General Velásquez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: General Velásquez vs Santiago City

General Velásquez beat Santiago City 4-1 in Segunda División on August 3, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Augusto Rodríguez in San Vicente de Tagua Tagua.