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Santiago City vs D. Melipilla — Segunda División 2020

Santiago City
Santiago City
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
11/28/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 26Estadio Municipal de Lo Barnechea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Santiago City32%
×Draw22%
D. Melipilla46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santiago City
1.53
D. Melipilla
1.89

D. Melipilla creates 24% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 38 away

creates per match

Santiago City
1.56
D. Melipilla
2.00

allows per match

Santiago City
1.78
D. Melipilla
1.50

finishing

Santiago City+0.00on par
D. Melipilla+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago City ↓

D. Melipilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Santiago City or draw
54%
Santiago City or D. Melipilla
78%
Draw or D. Melipilla
68%

Winning margin

Santiago City wins by 2+
15%
D. Melipilla wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Santiago City 1+ goals
78%
Santiago City 2+ goals
45%
Santiago City 3+ goals
20%
D. Melipilla 1+ goals
85%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
56%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Santiago City (draw refunded)
41%
D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago City at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

D. Melipilla away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago City attack 1.56 + D. Melipilla defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.53

D. Melipilla attack 2.00 + Santiago City defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Santiago City scores more
32%
level
22%
D. Melipilla scores more
46%

D. Melipilla at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "D. Melipilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santiago City vs D. Melipilla

D. Melipilla beat Santiago City 4-3 in Segunda División on November 28, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Lo Barnechea in Santiago de Chile.