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D. Melipilla vs Santiago City — Segunda División 2020

D. Melipilla
D. Melipilla
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Santiago City
Santiago City
6/22/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 13Estadio Soinca Bata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

D. Melipilla61%
×Draw20%
Santiago City18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

D. Melipilla
2.12
Santiago City
1.07

D. Melipilla creates 98% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 18 away

creates per match

D. Melipilla
1.74
Santiago City
1.39

allows per match

D. Melipilla
0.76
Santiago City
2.50

finishing

D. Melipilla+0.00on par
Santiago City+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

D. Melipilla ↓

Santiago City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

D. Melipilla or draw
82%
D. Melipilla or Santiago City
80%
Draw or Santiago City
39%

Winning margin

D. Melipilla wins by 2+
38%
Santiago City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

D. Melipilla 1+ goals
88%
D. Melipilla 2+ goals
62%
D. Melipilla 3+ goals
35%
Santiago City 1+ goals
66%
Santiago City 2+ goals
29%
Santiago City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

D. Melipilla (draw refunded)
77%
Santiago City (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

D. Melipilla at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

Santiago City away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

D. Melipilla attack 1.74 + Santiago City defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.12

Santiago City attack 1.39 + D. Melipilla defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

D. Melipilla scores more
61%
level
20%
Santiago City scores more
18%

D. Melipilla at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "D. Melipilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: D. Melipilla vs Santiago City

D. Melipilla beat Santiago City 3-0 in Segunda División on June 22, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Soinca Bata in Melipilla.