Santiago City 1–1 Concón National: Result & Stats

Santiago City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Concón National

M. Arias 52'

R. Gattas 26'

5/9/2026

Segunda División · Round 7Estadio Municipal de Lo Barnechea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Santiago City34%

×Draw23%

Concón National42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santiago CityExpected goals in this matchConcón National

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.71

Santiago City

1.52

Concón National

1.71

Concón National creates 13% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 31 away

1.56

creates per match

1.65

1.78

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Santiago City

1.56

Concón National

1.65

allows per match

Santiago City

1.78

Concón National

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santiago City+0.00on par

Concón National+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santiago City ↓

Concón National →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Santiago City or draw

58%

Santiago City or Concón National

77%

Draw or Concón National

66%

Winning margin

Santiago City wins by 2+

16%

Concón National wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Santiago City 1+ goals

78%

Santiago City 2+ goals

45%

Santiago City 3+ goals

20%

Concón National 1+ goals

82%

Concón National 2+ goals

51%

Concón National 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Santiago City (draw refunded)

45%

Concón National (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santiago City at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

Concón National away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santiago City attack 1.56 + Concón National defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.52

Concón National attack 1.65 + Santiago City defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Santiago City scores more

34%

level

23%

Concón National scores more

42%

Concón National at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Concón National will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

R. Gattas

38'

A. Diaz

46'

M. Medel de la Fuente← B. Arancibia

46'

M. Arias← T. Barrios

46'

B. Arias← A. Diaz

49'

B. Fuentes

52'

R. Gattas

52'

M. Arias

56'

61'

71'

74'

76'

76'

77'

80'

82'

89'

Santiago

Concón

1

20

4

16

5

3

8

▼

Alvarez

10

Ragusa

21

▼

Cerda

9

Vargas

22

⚽

▼

1

28

4

5

3

▼

Muller

24

▼

Barrios

23

Gonzalez

6

▼

Diaz

21

▼

Arancibia

11

▼

Taiva

7

Saez

Manager: Cristian Febre Santis Alejandro

46'▲M. Medel de la Fuente←▼B. Arancibia

46'▲M. Arias←▼T. Barrios

46'▲B. Arias←▼A. Diaz

71'▲M. Gatica←▼I. Muller

74'▲F. Nunez←▼B. Taiva

Santiago City substitutes

17Cardenas13Gatica10Fuente30Nunez12Montecinos2Arias20Arias

61'▲J. Plaza←▼R. Gattas

76'▲C. Vega←▼B. Alvarez

76'▲M. Beltran←▼A. Cerda

Concón National substitutes

11Bustos23Vega12Pizarro25Ugarte7Plaza14Beltran18Romero

Segunda División: Santiago City 1–1 Concón National

Santiago City and Concón National drew 1-1 in Segunda División on May 9, 2026.

Goals: R. Gattas (26'), M. Arias (52').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Lo Barnechea in Santiago de Chile.

Santiago City vs Concón National — Segunda División 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Segunda División: Santiago City 1–1 Concón National