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Concón National vs Santiago City — Segunda División 2020

Concón National
Concón National
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Santiago City
Santiago City
G. Bustos 90+4'
M. Carcamo 74'
C. Vega 57'
A. Cerda 30'
F. Nunez 45+2'
J. Aguero 22'
7/11/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Concón National51%
×Draw23%
Santiago City26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concón National
1.88
Santiago City
1.29

Concón National creates 46% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 18 away

creates per match

Concón National
1.26
Santiago City
1.39

allows per match

Concón National
1.19
Santiago City
2.50

finishing

Concón National+0.00on par
Santiago City+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concón National ↓

Santiago City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Concón National or draw
74%
Concón National or Santiago City
77%
Draw or Santiago City
49%

Winning margin

Concón National wins by 2+
29%
Santiago City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Concón National 1+ goals
85%
Concón National 2+ goals
56%
Concón National 3+ goals
29%
Santiago City 1+ goals
72%
Santiago City 2+ goals
37%
Santiago City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Concón National (draw refunded)
66%
Santiago City (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concón National at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

Santiago City away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concón National attack 1.26 + Santiago City defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.88

Santiago City attack 1.39 + Concón National defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Concón National scores more
51%
level
23%
Santiago City scores more
26%

Concón National at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Concón National will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
J. Aguero
30'
A. Cerda
45'
45+2'
F. Nunez
45+3'
D. Munoz← I. Muller
49'
M. Gatica
57'
C. Vega
67'
N. Claveria← F. Nunez
72'
M. Carcamo← G. Santelices
72'
G. Bustos← L. Vargas
74'
M. Carcamo
85'
K. Araya← B. Fuentes
85'
B. Alvarez← R. Gattas
90'
90+4'
G. Bustos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Concón National 4–2 Santiago City

Concón National beat Santiago City 4-2 in Segunda División on July 11, 2026.

Goals: J. Aguero (22'), A. Cerda (30'), F. Nunez (45+2'), C. Vega (57'), M. Carcamo (74'), G. Bustos (90+4').