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Santfeliuenc vs San Cristóbal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Santfeliuenc
Santfeliuenc
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
San Cristóbal
San Cristóbal
3/13/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 20Nou Estadi Municipal de Les Grases

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Santfeliuenc37%
×Draw28%
San Cristóbal35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santfeliuenc
1.17
San Cristóbal
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 108 away

creates per match

Santfeliuenc
1.18
San Cristóbal
0.78

allows per match

Santfeliuenc
1.46
San Cristóbal
1.15

finishing

Santfeliuenc+0.00on par
San Cristóbal+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santfeliuenc ↓

San Cristóbal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Santfeliuenc or draw
65%
Santfeliuenc or San Cristóbal
72%
Draw or San Cristóbal
63%

Winning margin

Santfeliuenc wins by 2+
16%
San Cristóbal wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Santfeliuenc 1+ goals
69%
Santfeliuenc 2+ goals
33%
Santfeliuenc 3+ goals
11%
San Cristóbal 1+ goals
67%
San Cristóbal 2+ goals
31%
San Cristóbal 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Santfeliuenc (draw refunded)
52%
San Cristóbal (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santfeliuenc at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

San Cristóbal away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.15 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santfeliuenc attack 1.18 + San Cristóbal defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

San Cristóbal attack 0.78 + Santfeliuenc defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Santfeliuenc scores more
37%
level
28%
San Cristóbal scores more
35%

Santfeliuenc at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Santfeliuenc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Santfeliuenc 0–2 San Cristóbal

San Cristóbal beat Santfeliuenc 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Nou Estadi Municipal de Les Grases in Barcelona.