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San Cristóbal vs Santfeliuenc — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

San Cristóbal
San Cristóbal
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Santfeliuenc
Santfeliuenc
12/13/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 9Camp de Futbol Municipal Ca n'Anglada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

San Cristóbal47%
×Draw27%
Santfeliuenc26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Cristóbal
1.41
Santfeliuenc
0.99

San Cristóbal creates 42% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 29 away

creates per match

San Cristóbal
1.37
Santfeliuenc
0.83

allows per match

San Cristóbal
1.15
Santfeliuenc
1.45

finishing

San Cristóbal+0.00on par
Santfeliuenc+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Cristóbal ↓

Santfeliuenc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

San Cristóbal or draw
74%
San Cristóbal or Santfeliuenc
73%
Draw or Santfeliuenc
53%

Winning margin

San Cristóbal wins by 2+
23%
Santfeliuenc wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

San Cristóbal 1+ goals
76%
San Cristóbal 2+ goals
41%
San Cristóbal 3+ goals
17%
Santfeliuenc 1+ goals
63%
Santfeliuenc 2+ goals
26%
Santfeliuenc 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

San Cristóbal (draw refunded)
64%
Santfeliuenc (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Cristóbal at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 109 matches

Santfeliuenc away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.45 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Cristóbal attack 1.37 + Santfeliuenc defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.41

Santfeliuenc attack 0.83 + San Cristóbal defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

San Cristóbal scores more
47%
level
27%
Santfeliuenc scores more
26%

San Cristóbal at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "San Cristóbal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: San Cristóbal 1–0 Santfeliuenc

San Cristóbal beat Santfeliuenc 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 13, 2020.

The match was played at Camp de Futbol Municipal Ca n'Anglada in Tarrasa.