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Santfeliuenc vs L'Hospitalet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Santfeliuenc
Santfeliuenc
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
L'Hospitalet
L'Hospitalet
9/21/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 5Nou Estadi Municipal de Les Grases

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Santfeliuenc32%
×Draw26%
L'Hospitalet43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santfeliuenc
1.23
L'Hospitalet
1.48

L'Hospitalet creates 20% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 95 away

creates per match

Santfeliuenc
1.18
L'Hospitalet
1.51

allows per match

Santfeliuenc
1.46
L'Hospitalet
1.27

finishing

Santfeliuenc+0.00on par
L'Hospitalet+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santfeliuenc ↓

L'Hospitalet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Santfeliuenc or draw
57%
Santfeliuenc or L'Hospitalet
74%
Draw or L'Hospitalet
68%

Winning margin

Santfeliuenc wins by 2+
13%
L'Hospitalet wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Santfeliuenc 1+ goals
71%
Santfeliuenc 2+ goals
35%
Santfeliuenc 3+ goals
13%
L'Hospitalet 1+ goals
77%
L'Hospitalet 2+ goals
43%
L'Hospitalet 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Santfeliuenc (draw refunded)
42%
L'Hospitalet (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santfeliuenc at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

L'Hospitalet away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.27 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santfeliuenc attack 1.18 + L'Hospitalet defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

L'Hospitalet attack 1.51 + Santfeliuenc defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Santfeliuenc scores more
32%
level
26%
L'Hospitalet scores more
43%

L'Hospitalet at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "L'Hospitalet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santfeliuenc 2 – 3 L'Hospitalet

L'Hospitalet beat Santfeliuenc 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Nou Estadi Municipal de Les Grases in Barcelona.