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L'Hospitalet vs Santfeliuenc — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

L'Hospitalet
L'Hospitalet
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Santfeliuenc
Santfeliuenc
2/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 24Estadio Municipal de Hospitalet de Llobregat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

L'Hospitalet56%
×Draw25%
Santfeliuenc19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

L'Hospitalet
1.58
Santfeliuenc
0.81

L'Hospitalet creates 95% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 29 away

creates per match

L'Hospitalet
1.71
Santfeliuenc
0.83

allows per match

L'Hospitalet
0.80
Santfeliuenc
1.45

finishing

L'Hospitalet+0.00on par
Santfeliuenc+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

L'Hospitalet ↓

Santfeliuenc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

L'Hospitalet or draw
81%
L'Hospitalet or Santfeliuenc
75%
Draw or Santfeliuenc
44%

Winning margin

L'Hospitalet wins by 2+
30%
Santfeliuenc wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

L'Hospitalet 1+ goals
79%
L'Hospitalet 2+ goals
47%
L'Hospitalet 3+ goals
21%
Santfeliuenc 1+ goals
56%
Santfeliuenc 2+ goals
19%
Santfeliuenc 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

L'Hospitalet (draw refunded)
74%
Santfeliuenc (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

L'Hospitalet at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.80 · 97 matches

Santfeliuenc away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.45 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

L'Hospitalet attack 1.71 + Santfeliuenc defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.58

Santfeliuenc attack 0.83 + L'Hospitalet defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

L'Hospitalet scores more
56%
level
25%
Santfeliuenc scores more
19%

L'Hospitalet at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "L'Hospitalet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: L'Hospitalet 3–2 Santfeliuenc

L'Hospitalet beat Santfeliuenc 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Hospitalet de Llobregat in L'Hospitalet de Llobregat.