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Santfeliuenc vs Granollers — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Santfeliuenc
Santfeliuenc
CANC
00:00
Granollers
Granollers
3/21/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 29Nou Estadi Municipal de Les Grases

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Santfeliuenc34%
×Draw26%
Granollers41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santfeliuenc
1.29
Granollers
1.45

Granollers creates 12% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 43 away

creates per match

Santfeliuenc
1.18
Granollers
1.44

allows per match

Santfeliuenc
1.46
Granollers
1.40

finishing

Santfeliuenc+0.00on par
Granollers+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santfeliuenc ↓

Granollers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Santfeliuenc or draw
59%
Santfeliuenc or Granollers
74%
Draw or Granollers
66%

Winning margin

Santfeliuenc wins by 2+
15%
Granollers wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Santfeliuenc 1+ goals
72%
Santfeliuenc 2+ goals
37%
Santfeliuenc 3+ goals
14%
Granollers 1+ goals
77%
Granollers 2+ goals
42%
Granollers 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Santfeliuenc (draw refunded)
45%
Granollers (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santfeliuenc at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

Granollers away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santfeliuenc attack 1.18 + Granollers defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.29

Granollers attack 1.44 + Santfeliuenc defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Santfeliuenc scores more
34%
level
26%
Granollers scores more
41%

Granollers at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Granollers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santfeliuenc face Granollers (Tercera División RFEF - Group 5)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 returns with Santfeliuenc hosting Granollers. Match starts March 21, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Santfeliuenc host Granollers at Nou Estadi Municipal de Les Grases.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.