Granollers 4–2 Santfeliuenc: Result & Stats

Granollers

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Santfeliuenc

Alex Castillo 81'

Pau Darbra 36' (pen)

Albert Ruiz 23'

Oriol Molins 16'

Joan Gibert 29'

Juanjo Prior 7'

10/27/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 10Campo Municipal Carrer Girona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Granollers46%

×Draw26%

Santfeliuenc28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GranollersExpected goals in this matchSantfeliuenc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.06

Granollers

1.44

Santfeliuenc

1.06

Granollers creates 36% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 29 away

1.42

creates per match

0.83

1.30

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Granollers

1.42

Santfeliuenc

0.83

allows per match

Granollers

1.30

Santfeliuenc

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granollers+0.00on par

Santfeliuenc+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granollers ↓

Santfeliuenc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Granollers or draw

72%

Granollers or Santfeliuenc

74%

Draw or Santfeliuenc

54%

Winning margin

Granollers wins by 2+

22%

Santfeliuenc wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Granollers 1+ goals

76%

Granollers 2+ goals

42%

Granollers 3+ goals

18%

Santfeliuenc 1+ goals

65%

Santfeliuenc 2+ goals

29%

Santfeliuenc 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Granollers (draw refunded)

62%

Santfeliuenc (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granollers at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.30 · 43 matches

Santfeliuenc away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.45 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granollers attack 1.42 + Santfeliuenc defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

Santfeliuenc attack 0.83 + Granollers defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Granollers scores more

46%

level

26%

Santfeliuenc scores more

28%

Granollers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Granollers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

16'

23'

29'

36'

Pau DarbraPenalty

65'

Tena← Albert Porqueras

67'

Alex Castillo← Marc García

72'

Romo← Alfonso Castellano

72'

Raúl Capitán← S. Bello

81'

Alex Castillo

84'

Arnau Fortuny← Albert Ruiz

85'

Max Llovera← Eloi Zamorano

Granollers

Santfeliuenc

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

Ruiz

Manager: José Solivelles

67'▲Alex Castillo←▼Marc García

84'▲Arnau Fortuny←▼Albert Ruiz

85'▲Max Llovera←▼Eloi Zamorano

Granollers substitutes

CastilloFortunyLlovera

Manager: Andrés González

65'▲Tena←▼Albert Porqueras

72'▲Romo←▼Alfonso Castellano

72'▲Raúl Capitán←▼S. Bello

Santfeliuenc substitutes

TenaRomoCapitán

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Granollers 4–2 Santfeliuenc

Granollers beat Santfeliuenc 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 27, 2019.

Goals: Juanjo Prior (7'), Oriol Molins (16'), Albert Ruiz (23'), Joan Gibert (29'), Pau Darbra (36' pen), Alex Castillo (81').

The match was played at Campo Municipal Carrer Girona in Granollers.

Granollers vs Santfeliuenc — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Granollers 4–2 Santfeliuenc