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Santanyí vs Peña Deportiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Santanyí
Santanyí
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Peña Deportiva
Peña Deportiva
5/3/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 33Estadio Municipal de Santanyí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Santanyí35%
×Draw27%
Peña Deportiva39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santanyí
1.24
Peña Deportiva
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 19 away

creates per match

Santanyí
1.48
Peña Deportiva
1.74

allows per match

Santanyí
0.92
Peña Deportiva
1.00

finishing

Santanyí+0.00on par
Peña Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santanyí ↓

Peña Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Santanyí or draw
61%
Santanyí or Peña Deportiva
73%
Draw or Peña Deportiva
65%

Winning margin

Santanyí wins by 2+
15%
Peña Deportiva wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Santanyí 1+ goals
71%
Santanyí 2+ goals
35%
Santanyí 3+ goals
13%
Peña Deportiva 1+ goals
74%
Peña Deportiva 2+ goals
38%
Peña Deportiva 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Santanyí (draw refunded)
47%
Peña Deportiva (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santanyí at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 112 matches

Peña Deportiva away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santanyí attack 1.48 + Peña Deportiva defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.24

Peña Deportiva attack 1.74 + Santanyí defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Santanyí scores more
35%
level
27%
Peña Deportiva scores more
39%

Peña Deportiva at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Peña Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santanyí vs Peña Deportiva

Santanyí beat Peña Deportiva 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on May 3, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Santanyí in Santañy (Santanyí) (Mallorca).