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Peña Deportiva vs Santanyí — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Peña Deportiva
Peña Deportiva
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Santanyí
Santanyí
1/4/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 16Campo Municipal del Santa Eulalia del Río

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Peña Deportiva58%
×Draw22%
Santanyí19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Peña Deportiva
1.87
Santanyí
0.98

Peña Deportiva creates 91% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 113 away

creates per match

Peña Deportiva
2.32
Santanyí
1.17

allows per match

Peña Deportiva
0.79
Santanyí
1.42

finishing

Peña Deportiva+0.00on par
Santanyí+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peña Deportiva ↓

Santanyí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Peña Deportiva or draw
81%
Peña Deportiva or Santanyí
78%
Draw or Santanyí
42%

Winning margin

Peña Deportiva wins by 2+
34%
Santanyí wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Peña Deportiva 1+ goals
85%
Peña Deportiva 2+ goals
56%
Peña Deportiva 3+ goals
29%
Santanyí 1+ goals
62%
Santanyí 2+ goals
26%
Santanyí 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Peña Deportiva (draw refunded)
75%
Santanyí (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peña Deportiva at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

Santanyí away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peña Deportiva attack 2.32 + Santanyí defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.87

Santanyí attack 1.17 + Peña Deportiva defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Peña Deportiva scores more
58%
level
22%
Santanyí scores more
19%

Peña Deportiva at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Peña Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Peña Deportiva vs Santanyí

Peña Deportiva and Santanyí drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on January 4, 2026.

The match was played at Campo Municipal del Santa Eulalia del Río in Santa Eulalia del Río (Ibiza).