Santanyí 2–2 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas: Result & Stats

Santanyí

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Saúl Mestre 90+1'

Rubio 43' (pen)

Cristian Terán 72'

F. Losada 27' (pen)

2/15/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 24Estadio Municipal de Santanyí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Santanyí27%

×Draw26%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantanyíExpected goals in this matchIbiza Islas Pitiusas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.46

Santanyí

1.03

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.46

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 42% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 44 away

1.48

creates per match

2.00

0.92

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

Santanyí

1.48

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.00

allows per match

Santanyí

0.92

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santanyí+0.00on par

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santanyí ↓

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas →

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Santanyí or draw

53%

Santanyí or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

74%

Draw or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

73%

Winning margin

Santanyí wins by 2+

10%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Santanyí 1+ goals

64%

Santanyí 2+ goals

28%

Santanyí 3+ goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

77%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

43%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Santanyí (draw refunded)

36%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santanyí at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.92 · 112 matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.59 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santanyí attack 1.48 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.03

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.00 + Santanyí defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Santanyí scores more

27%

level

26%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

47%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

F. LosadaPenalty

43'

RubioPenalty

67'

Dailos Tejera← F. Mascia

69'

Ignacio Sanchez← Álvaro Jiménez

72'

Cristian Terán

75'

Saúl Mestre← Pep Canals

75'

Cala← Cristian Terán

81'

Solano← Colau

90+1'

Saúl Mestre

Santanyí

Ibiza

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Javier Linares

69'▲Ignacio Sanchez←▼Álvaro Jiménez

75'▲Saúl Mestre←▼Pep Canals

Santanyí substitutes

SanchezMestre

Manager: José Pérez

67'▲Dailos Tejera←▼F. Mascia

75'▲Cala←▼Cristian Terán

81'▲Solano←▼Colau

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

TejeraCalaSolano