Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2–0 Santanyí: Result & Stats

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Santanyí

Jesús Pozo 90'

Xesc Navalón 47'

10/8/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 5Estadio Municipal de Sant Rafel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas61%

×Draw23%

Santanyí16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibiza Islas PitiusasExpected goals in this matchSantanyí

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.80

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.78

Santanyí

0.80

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 123% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 113 away

2.14

creates per match

1.17

0.44

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.14

Santanyí

1.17

allows per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.44

Santanyí

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Santanyí+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas ↓

Santanyí →

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw

84%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or Santanyí

77%

Draw or Santanyí

39%

Winning margin

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

35%

Santanyí wins by 2+

Team goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

83%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

53%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

26%

Santanyí 1+ goals

55%

Santanyí 2+ goals

19%

Santanyí 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

79%

Santanyí (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.44 · 43 matches

Santanyí away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.14 + Santanyí defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.78

Santanyí attack 1.17 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

61%

level

23%

Santanyí scores more

16%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Mario Genoves← Borja Gurrionero

47'

Xesc Navalón

61'

Tomeu Amengual← Saúl Mestre

61'

Diego López← Gaby Santos

66'

Álex Sánchez← Mario Riquelme

66'

C. Carosso← Felipao

75'

Álex Vera← Cristian Cruz

81'

Jordi Ramis← Aley

83'

Roberto Fernández← Carlos Fernández

83'

Jesús Pozo← Dani Sales

90'

Jesús Pozo

Ibiza

Santanyí

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Raúl Casañ

66'▲Álex Sánchez←▼Mario Riquelme

66'▲C. Carosso←▼Felipao

75'▲Álex Vera←▼Cristian Cruz

83'▲Roberto Fernández←▼Carlos Fernández

83'▲Jesús Pozo←▼Dani Sales

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

SánchezCarossoVeraFernándezPozo

Manager: Miquel Aguado

46'▲Mario Genoves←▼Borja Gurrionero

61'▲Tomeu Amengual←▼Saúl Mestre

61'▲Diego López←▼Gaby Santos

81'▲Jordi Ramis←▼Aley

Santanyí substitutes

GenovesAmengualLópezRamis

Match Recap: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Santanyí

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Santanyí 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 8, 2023.

Goals: Xesc Navalón (47'), Jesús Pozo (90').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Sant Rafel in Ibiza.

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Santanyí — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Santanyí