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Santamarina vs Liniers Bahía Blanca — Torneo Federal A 2018

Santamarina
Santamarina
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Liniers Bahía Blanca
Liniers Bahía Blanca
9/9/2023Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group B - 29Estadio Municipal General San Martín de Tandil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Santamarina58%
×Draw27%
Liniers Bahía Blanca15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santamarina
1.43
Liniers Bahía Blanca
0.58

Santamarina creates 147% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 33 away

creates per match

Santamarina
1.24
Liniers Bahía Blanca
0.58

allows per match

Santamarina
0.58
Liniers Bahía Blanca
1.61

finishing

Santamarina+0.00on par
Liniers Bahía Blanca+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santamarina ↓

Liniers Bahía Blanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Santamarina or draw
85%
Santamarina or Liniers Bahía Blanca
73%
Draw or Liniers Bahía Blanca
42%

Winning margin

Santamarina wins by 2+
30%
Liniers Bahía Blanca wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Santamarina 1+ goals
76%
Santamarina 2+ goals
42%
Santamarina 3+ goals
17%
Liniers Bahía Blanca 1+ goals
44%
Liniers Bahía Blanca 2+ goals
12%
Liniers Bahía Blanca 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Santamarina (draw refunded)
79%
Liniers Bahía Blanca (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santamarina at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.58 · 55 matches

Liniers Bahía Blanca away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santamarina attack 1.24 + Liniers Bahía Blanca defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.43

Liniers Bahía Blanca attack 0.58 + Santamarina defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Santamarina scores more
58%
level
27%
Liniers Bahía Blanca scores more
15%

Santamarina at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Santamarina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Santamarina 1–1 Liniers Bahía Blanca

Santamarina and Liniers Bahía Blanca drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal General San Martín de Tandil in Tandil, Provincia de Buenos Aires.