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Liniers Bahía Blanca vs Santamarina — Torneo Federal A 2018

Liniers Bahía Blanca
Liniers Bahía Blanca
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Santamarina
Santamarina
3/18/2023Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group B - 2Estadio Dr. Alejandro Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Liniers Bahía Blanca42%
×Draw30%
Santamarina28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liniers Bahía Blanca
1.19
Santamarina
0.91

Liniers Bahía Blanca creates 31% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 54 away

creates per match

Liniers Bahía Blanca
1.03
Santamarina
0.72

allows per match

Liniers Bahía Blanca
1.09
Santamarina
1.35

finishing

Liniers Bahía Blanca+0.00on par
Santamarina+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liniers Bahía Blanca ↓

Santamarina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Liniers Bahía Blanca or draw
72%
Liniers Bahía Blanca or Santamarina
70%
Draw or Santamarina
58%

Winning margin

Liniers Bahía Blanca wins by 2+
18%
Santamarina wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Liniers Bahía Blanca 1+ goals
70%
Liniers Bahía Blanca 2+ goals
33%
Liniers Bahía Blanca 3+ goals
12%
Santamarina 1+ goals
60%
Santamarina 2+ goals
23%
Santamarina 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Liniers Bahía Blanca (draw refunded)
60%
Santamarina (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liniers Bahía Blanca at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

Santamarina away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.35 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liniers Bahía Blanca attack 1.03 + Santamarina defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.19

Santamarina attack 0.72 + Liniers Bahía Blanca defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Liniers Bahía Blanca scores more
42%
level
30%
Santamarina scores more
28%

Liniers Bahía Blanca at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Liniers Bahía Blanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Liniers Bahía Blanca 2–1 Santamarina

Liniers Bahía Blanca beat Santamarina 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Alejandro Pérez in Bahía Blanca, Provincia de Buenos Aires.