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Santa Úrsula vs San Bartolomé — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Santa Úrsula
Santa Úrsula
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Bartolomé
San Bartolomé
10/19/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 7Estadio Argelio Tabares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Santa Úrsula51%
×Draw26%
San Bartolomé23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Úrsula
1.48
San Bartolomé
0.90

Santa Úrsula creates 64% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 51 away

creates per match

Santa Úrsula
1.33
San Bartolomé
1.00

allows per match

Santa Úrsula
0.80
San Bartolomé
1.63

finishing

Santa Úrsula+0.00on par
San Bartolomé+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Úrsula ↓

San Bartolomé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Santa Úrsula or draw
77%
Santa Úrsula or San Bartolomé
74%
Draw or San Bartolomé
49%

Winning margin

Santa Úrsula wins by 2+
26%
San Bartolomé wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Santa Úrsula 1+ goals
77%
Santa Úrsula 2+ goals
43%
Santa Úrsula 3+ goals
19%
San Bartolomé 1+ goals
59%
San Bartolomé 2+ goals
23%
San Bartolomé 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)
69%
San Bartolomé (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Úrsula at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.80 · 92 matches

San Bartolomé away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Úrsula attack 1.33 + San Bartolomé defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

San Bartolomé attack 1.00 + Santa Úrsula defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Santa Úrsula scores more
51%
level
26%
San Bartolomé scores more
23%

Santa Úrsula at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Santa Úrsula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Santa Úrsula 0–0 San Bartolomé

Santa Úrsula and San Bartolomé drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Argelio Tabares in Santa Úrsula.