San Bartolomé 0–1 Santa Úrsula: Result & Stats

San Bartolomé

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Santa Úrsula

10/28/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 8Municipal Pedro Espinosa De León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

San Bartolomé48%

×Draw27%

Santa Úrsula25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San BartoloméExpected goals in this matchSanta Úrsula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.93

San Bartolomé

1.40

Santa Úrsula

0.93

San Bartolomé creates 51% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 92 away

1.27

creates per match

0.90

0.96

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

San Bartolomé

1.27

Santa Úrsula

0.90

allows per match

San Bartolomé

0.96

Santa Úrsula

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Bartolomé+0.00on par

Santa Úrsula+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Bartolomé ↓

Santa Úrsula →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

San Bartolomé or draw

75%

San Bartolomé or Santa Úrsula

73%

Draw or Santa Úrsula

52%

Winning margin

San Bartolomé wins by 2+

23%

Santa Úrsula wins by 2+

Team goals

San Bartolomé 1+ goals

75%

San Bartolomé 2+ goals

41%

San Bartolomé 3+ goals

17%

Santa Úrsula 1+ goals

61%

Santa Úrsula 2+ goals

24%

Santa Úrsula 3+ goals

Draw no bet

San Bartolomé (draw refunded)

66%

Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Bartolomé at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.96 · 51 matches

Santa Úrsula away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Bartolomé attack 1.27 + Santa Úrsula defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.40

Santa Úrsula attack 0.90 + San Bartolomé defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

San Bartolomé scores more

48%

level

27%

Santa Úrsula scores more

25%

San Bartolomé at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "San Bartolomé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff