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Santa Úrsula vs Las Zocas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Santa Úrsula
Santa Úrsula
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Las Zocas
Las Zocas
1/8/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 18Estadio Argelio Tabares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Santa Úrsula67%
×Draw22%
Las Zocas11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Úrsula
1.76
Las Zocas
0.53

Santa Úrsula creates 232% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 16 away

creates per match

Santa Úrsula
1.33
Las Zocas
0.25

allows per match

Santa Úrsula
0.80
Las Zocas
2.19

finishing

Santa Úrsula+0.00on par
Las Zocas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Úrsula ↓

Las Zocas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–19%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Santa Úrsula or draw
89%
Santa Úrsula or Las Zocas
78%
Draw or Las Zocas
33%

Winning margin

Santa Úrsula wins by 2+
40%
Las Zocas wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Santa Úrsula 1+ goals
83%
Santa Úrsula 2+ goals
52%
Santa Úrsula 3+ goals
26%
Las Zocas 1+ goals
41%
Las Zocas 2+ goals
10%
Las Zocas 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)
86%
Las Zocas (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Úrsula at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.80 · 92 matches

Las Zocas away — creates 0.25, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Úrsula attack 1.33 + Las Zocas defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.76

Las Zocas attack 0.25 + Santa Úrsula defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Santa Úrsula scores more
67%
level
22%
Las Zocas scores more
11%

Santa Úrsula at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Santa Úrsula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Santa Úrsula 1–0 Las Zocas

Santa Úrsula beat Las Zocas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on January 8, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Argelio Tabares in Santa Úrsula.