Las Zocas 0–1 Santa Úrsula: Result & Stats

Las Zocas

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Santa Úrsula

9/4/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 1Estadio Juanito Marrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Las Zocas30%

×Draw27%

Santa Úrsula43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las ZocasExpected goals in this matchSanta Úrsula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.35

Las Zocas

1.07

Santa Úrsula

1.35

Santa Úrsula creates 26% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 92 away

0.63

creates per match

0.90

1.81

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Las Zocas

0.63

Santa Úrsula

0.90

allows per match

Las Zocas

1.81

Santa Úrsula

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Zocas+0.00on par

Santa Úrsula+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Zocas ↓

Santa Úrsula →

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Las Zocas or draw

57%

Las Zocas or Santa Úrsula

73%

Draw or Santa Úrsula

70%

Winning margin

Las Zocas wins by 2+

11%

Santa Úrsula wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Las Zocas 1+ goals

66%

Las Zocas 2+ goals

29%

Las Zocas 3+ goals

Santa Úrsula 1+ goals

74%

Santa Úrsula 2+ goals

39%

Santa Úrsula 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Las Zocas (draw refunded)

41%

Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Las Zocas at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Santa Úrsula away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Las Zocas attack 0.63 + Santa Úrsula defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.07

Santa Úrsula attack 0.90 + Las Zocas defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Las Zocas scores more

30%

level

27%

Santa Úrsula scores more

43%

Santa Úrsula at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Santa Úrsula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff