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Santa Úrsula vs Las Palmas II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Santa Úrsula
Santa Úrsula
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
11/2/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 9Estadio Argelio Tabares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Santa Úrsula36%
×Draw29%
Las Palmas II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Úrsula
1.13
Las Palmas II
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 49 away

creates per match

Santa Úrsula
1.33
Las Palmas II
1.45

allows per match

Santa Úrsula
0.80
Las Palmas II
0.92

finishing

Santa Úrsula+0.00on par
Las Palmas II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Úrsula ↓

Las Palmas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Santa Úrsula or draw
64%
Santa Úrsula or Las Palmas II
71%
Draw or Las Palmas II
64%

Winning margin

Santa Úrsula wins by 2+
15%
Las Palmas II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Santa Úrsula 1+ goals
68%
Santa Úrsula 2+ goals
31%
Santa Úrsula 3+ goals
11%
Las Palmas II 1+ goals
68%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
31%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)
50%
Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Úrsula at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.80 · 92 matches

Las Palmas II away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.92 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Úrsula attack 1.33 + Las Palmas II defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.13

Las Palmas II attack 1.45 + Santa Úrsula defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Santa Úrsula scores more
36%
level
29%
Las Palmas II scores more
36%

Santa Úrsula at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Santa Úrsula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santa Úrsula vs Las Palmas II

Las Palmas II beat Santa Úrsula 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Argelio Tabares in Santa Úrsula.