Las Palmas II 2–0 Santa Úrsula: Result & Stats

Las Palmas II

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Santa Úrsula

12/17/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 14Anexo Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Las Palmas II66%

×Draw21%

Santa Úrsula13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Las Palmas IIExpected goals in this matchSanta Úrsula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

0.70

Las Palmas II

1.91

Santa Úrsula

0.70

Las Palmas II creates 173% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 92 away

2.29

creates per match

0.90

0.49

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Las Palmas II

2.29

Santa Úrsula

0.90

allows per match

Las Palmas II

0.49

Santa Úrsula

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Las Palmas II+0.00on par

Santa Úrsula+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas II ↓

Santa Úrsula →

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–014%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Las Palmas II or draw

87%

Las Palmas II or Santa Úrsula

79%

Draw or Santa Úrsula

34%

Winning margin

Las Palmas II wins by 2+

40%

Santa Úrsula wins by 2+

Team goals

Las Palmas II 1+ goals

85%

Las Palmas II 2+ goals

57%

Las Palmas II 3+ goals

30%

Santa Úrsula 1+ goals

50%

Santa Úrsula 2+ goals

16%

Santa Úrsula 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Las Palmas II (draw refunded)

84%

Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas II at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.49 · 49 matches

Santa Úrsula away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas II attack 2.29 + Santa Úrsula defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.91

Santa Úrsula attack 0.90 + Las Palmas II defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Las Palmas II scores more

66%

level

21%

Santa Úrsula scores more

13%

Las Palmas II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Las Palmas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Las Palmas II vs Santa Úrsula

Las Palmas II beat Santa Úrsula 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Anexo Gran Canaria in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.

Las Palmas II vs Santa Úrsula — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Las Palmas II vs Santa Úrsula