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Santa Úrsula vs Herbania — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Santa Úrsula
Santa Úrsula
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Herbania
Herbania
3/8/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 25Estadio Argelio Tabares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Santa Úrsula53%
×Draw27%
Herbania19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Úrsula
1.41
Herbania
0.73

Santa Úrsula creates 93% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 67 away

creates per match

Santa Úrsula
1.33
Herbania
0.66

allows per match

Santa Úrsula
0.80
Herbania
1.49

finishing

Santa Úrsula+0.00on par
Herbania+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Úrsula ↓

Herbania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Santa Úrsula or draw
81%
Santa Úrsula or Herbania
73%
Draw or Herbania
47%

Winning margin

Santa Úrsula wins by 2+
26%
Herbania wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Santa Úrsula 1+ goals
76%
Santa Úrsula 2+ goals
41%
Santa Úrsula 3+ goals
17%
Herbania 1+ goals
52%
Herbania 2+ goals
17%
Herbania 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)
73%
Herbania (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Úrsula at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.80 · 92 matches

Herbania away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.49 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Úrsula attack 1.33 + Herbania defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.41

Herbania attack 0.66 + Santa Úrsula defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Santa Úrsula scores more
53%
level
27%
Herbania scores more
19%

Santa Úrsula at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Santa Úrsula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Santa Úrsula 1–2 Herbania

Herbania beat Santa Úrsula 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Argelio Tabares in Santa Úrsula.