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Herbania vs Santa Úrsula — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Herbania
Herbania
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Santa Úrsula
Santa Úrsula
10/26/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 8Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Herbania45%
×Draw27%
Santa Úrsula28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Herbania
1.40
Santa Úrsula
1.03

Herbania creates 36% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 92 away

creates per match

Herbania
1.27
Santa Úrsula
0.90

allows per match

Herbania
1.16
Santa Úrsula
1.52

finishing

Herbania+0.00on par
Santa Úrsula+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Herbania ↓

Santa Úrsula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Herbania or draw
72%
Herbania or Santa Úrsula
73%
Draw or Santa Úrsula
55%

Winning margin

Herbania wins by 2+
22%
Santa Úrsula wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Herbania 1+ goals
75%
Herbania 2+ goals
41%
Herbania 3+ goals
17%
Santa Úrsula 1+ goals
64%
Santa Úrsula 2+ goals
28%
Santa Úrsula 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Herbania (draw refunded)
62%
Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Herbania at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

Santa Úrsula away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Herbania attack 1.27 + Santa Úrsula defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.40

Santa Úrsula attack 0.90 + Herbania defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Herbania scores more
45%
level
27%
Santa Úrsula scores more
28%

Herbania at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Herbania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Herbania 0–1 Santa Úrsula

Santa Úrsula beat Herbania 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos in Puerto Rosario.