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Santa Úrsula vs Güímar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Santa Úrsula
Santa Úrsula
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Güímar
Güímar
4/6/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 13Estadio Argelio Tabares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Santa Úrsula63%
×Draw22%
Güímar15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Úrsula
1.81
Güímar
0.74

Santa Úrsula creates 145% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 28 away

creates per match

Santa Úrsula
1.33
Güímar
0.68

allows per match

Santa Úrsula
0.80
Güímar
2.29

finishing

Santa Úrsula+0.00on par
Güímar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Úrsula ↓

Güímar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Santa Úrsula or draw
85%
Santa Úrsula or Güímar
78%
Draw or Güímar
37%

Winning margin

Santa Úrsula wins by 2+
37%
Güímar wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Santa Úrsula 1+ goals
84%
Santa Úrsula 2+ goals
54%
Santa Úrsula 3+ goals
27%
Güímar 1+ goals
52%
Güímar 2+ goals
17%
Güímar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)
81%
Güímar (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Úrsula at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.80 · 92 matches

Güímar away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Úrsula attack 1.33 + Güímar defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.81

Güímar attack 0.68 + Santa Úrsula defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Santa Úrsula scores more
63%
level
22%
Güímar scores more
15%

Santa Úrsula at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Santa Úrsula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Santa Úrsula 0–0 Güímar

Santa Úrsula and Güímar drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 6, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Argelio Tabares in Santa Úrsula.