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Güímar vs Santa Úrsula — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Güímar
Güímar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Santa Úrsula
Santa Úrsula
10/23/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 2Estadio de Tasagaya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Güímar42%
×Draw25%
Santa Úrsula33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Güímar
1.48
Santa Úrsula
1.29

Güímar creates 15% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 92 away

creates per match

Güímar
1.43
Santa Úrsula
0.90

allows per match

Güímar
1.68
Santa Úrsula
1.52

finishing

Güímar+0.00on par
Santa Úrsula+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Güímar ↓

Santa Úrsula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Güímar or draw
67%
Güímar or Santa Úrsula
75%
Draw or Santa Úrsula
58%

Winning margin

Güímar wins by 2+
20%
Santa Úrsula wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Güímar 1+ goals
77%
Güímar 2+ goals
43%
Güímar 3+ goals
19%
Santa Úrsula 1+ goals
72%
Santa Úrsula 2+ goals
37%
Santa Úrsula 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Güímar (draw refunded)
56%
Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Güímar at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.68 · 28 matches

Santa Úrsula away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Güímar attack 1.43 + Santa Úrsula defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.48

Santa Úrsula attack 0.90 + Güímar defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Güímar scores more
42%
level
25%
Santa Úrsula scores more
33%

Güímar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Güímar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Güímar 1–0 Santa Úrsula

Güímar beat Santa Úrsula 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 23, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio de Tasagaya in Güímar.