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Santa Úrsula vs Estrella — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Santa Úrsula
Santa Úrsula
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Estrella
Estrella
1/8/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 15Estadio Argelio Tabares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Santa Úrsula65%
×Draw22%
Estrella13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Úrsula
1.85
Estrella
0.68

Santa Úrsula creates 172% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 32 away

creates per match

Santa Úrsula
1.33
Estrella
0.56

allows per match

Santa Úrsula
0.80
Estrella
2.38

finishing

Santa Úrsula+0.00on par
Estrella+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Úrsula ↓

Estrella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Santa Úrsula or draw
87%
Santa Úrsula or Estrella
78%
Draw or Estrella
35%

Winning margin

Santa Úrsula wins by 2+
39%
Estrella wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Santa Úrsula 1+ goals
84%
Santa Úrsula 2+ goals
55%
Santa Úrsula 3+ goals
28%
Estrella 1+ goals
49%
Estrella 2+ goals
15%
Estrella 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)
83%
Estrella (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Úrsula at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.80 · 92 matches

Estrella away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Úrsula attack 1.33 + Estrella defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.85

Estrella attack 0.56 + Santa Úrsula defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Santa Úrsula scores more
65%
level
22%
Estrella scores more
13%

Santa Úrsula at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Santa Úrsula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santa Úrsula vs Estrella

Santa Úrsula and Estrella drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on January 8, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Argelio Tabares in Santa Úrsula.