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Estrella vs Santa Úrsula — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Estrella
Estrella
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Santa Úrsula
Santa Úrsula
4/26/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 32Estadio Las Palmitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Estrella38%
×Draw28%
Santa Úrsula34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estrella
1.25
Santa Úrsula
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 92 away

creates per match

Estrella
0.97
Santa Úrsula
0.90

allows per match

Estrella
1.44
Santa Úrsula
1.52

finishing

Estrella+0.00on par
Santa Úrsula+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrella ↓

Santa Úrsula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Estrella or draw
66%
Estrella or Santa Úrsula
72%
Draw or Santa Úrsula
62%

Winning margin

Estrella wins by 2+
17%
Santa Úrsula wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Estrella 1+ goals
71%
Estrella 2+ goals
36%
Estrella 3+ goals
13%
Santa Úrsula 1+ goals
69%
Santa Úrsula 2+ goals
33%
Santa Úrsula 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Estrella (draw refunded)
53%
Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrella at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Santa Úrsula away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrella attack 0.97 + Santa Úrsula defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.25

Santa Úrsula attack 0.90 + Estrella defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Estrella scores more
38%
level
28%
Santa Úrsula scores more
34%

Estrella at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Estrella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Estrella 1–1 Santa Úrsula

Estrella and Santa Úrsula drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Las Palmitas in Gran Canaria.